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San Bruno House Appreciation vs San Mateo County

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Since the 1st-quarter of 2022, San Bruno house price appreciation has not kept up with San Mateo County. Similar low appreciation is seen for other cities near San Francisco.

San Bruno House Prices vs. San Mateo County House Prices

The upper traces show San Mateo County house prices. The lower traces show San Bruno house prices. In the early 2000’s, the government supported relaxed loan qualifications for low-income home buyers to help more people become homeowners. It is not surprising that the 2008 mortgage crisis affected lower-priced homes in San Bruno more than the San Mateo County average and median. What is interesting is that after the 1st-quarter of 2022 San Bruno prices appreciated less than San Mateo County prices.

San Bruno House Age vs. San Mateo County House Age

New homes sell at a premium compared to older homes. Consider how the age of the typical houses sold would affect prices.

The faint red line shows the average age of houses sold in San Mateo County. The strong red line shows the average age of San Bruno houses sold. With an older average age after the 2nd quarter of 2019, it could be expected that San Bruno house prices would not keep up with San Mateo County.

Generally, multiple factors affect house price appreciation. The age of houses sold appears to be a factor for lower price appreciation in San Bruno vs. San Mateo County. More information about these real estate trends is available at https://julianalee.com/blog/san-mateo-county-vs-santa-clara-county-real-estate-trends-age/ .

San Mateo County vs Santa Clara County Real Estate

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House Prices Converge In 2022

San Mateo County house prices vs. Santa Clara County house prices

For many years, San Mateo County house prices per sq. ft. were higher than Santa Clara County’s. In 2022, this changed, and the prices became very similar. With this occurring shortly after COVID restrictions being lifted, it was probably at least partially due to people leaving high-density areas such as San Francisco and working remotely.

Flat House Prices Near San Francisco

San Bruno house prices vs. San Mateo County house prices.

Cities near San Francisco, including Brisbane, Daly City, Pacifica, San Bruno, and South San Francisco, have had flatter house prices than San Mateo County averages.

Other Real Estate Trends Converge

San Bruno house age vs San Mateo County house age

The average age of a San Bruno house sold, shown by the strong red line in the graph above, increased more in 2019 than the average age of a San Mateo County house sold, shown by the faint red line. The median ages of the two areas track each other closely and rose steadily, indicating that fairly new houses had far fewer sales after 2019.

Considerations For Real Estate Trends

Rapid changes to real estate trends can occur for a number of reasons: economic crisis, interest rates, government housing policies, pandemics, speculation, etc. Some of the changes can be fairly short-term, such as the 2000 dot-com boom, while others have long-lasting impacts. Although a single event may trigger a rapid change, the impact on a city is modified by other factors.

Do Silicon Valley House Prices Follow A K-Shaped Trend?

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Concerns about a K-shaped economy have entered the housing market. An important question is “do Silicon Valley house prices show a K-shaped trend?” The answer could be important to you whether you are a home buyer, a home seller, or a real estate investor.

A K-shaped economy is a trend where wealthy people have greater wealth growth than average or low wealth people have. This may imply that luxury house prices rise faster than average house prices. The question is thus, do they?

Luxury House Prices vs. Average House Prices

A quick look for a K-shaped house price trend can be done by comparing Atherton house prices (luxury houses) to Redwood City house prices (average houses).

Although house prices significantly different in Atherton and Redwood City, the appreciation rates are very close. There is no K-shaped trend.

More house price comparisons posted at https://julianalee.com/blog/silicon-valley-houses-no-k-shaped-trend/ also show that there is no K-shaped trend.

“The Old Paradigm Of Low Interest Rates … Is Not Going To Return”

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Ken Rosen, the chairman of the Fisher Center For Real Estate, at Berkeley’s Hass School of Business, talked recently about future real estate trends. Two points stood out: 1.) The old paradigm of low interest rates is not going to return in the foreseeable future. 2.) The doubling of debt service costs and cap rates has decreased values and now may be the best opportunity to buy real estate below replacement costs we’ve had since the early 1990’s.

Silicon Valley House Prices

Silicon Valley house prices

Silicon Valley real estate trends show relatively flat house prices after the price drop at the beginning of 2022. The drop in values Dr. Rosen talked about only weakly applies to Silicon Valley houses. However, he also brought up replacement costs. The increased financing cost and increased cost of materials has brought the construction of new market rate apartments to a halt in San Jose. Replacement costs have discouraged builders from starting new housing projects. With neither interest rates nor building costs likely to decrease, waiting for change before trying to achieve your housing goals is not likely to be a good plan.

Real estate economist Ken Rosen on YouTube.

House Price Up But Price Per Sq.Ft. Down

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The San Mateo City average house price rose in line with previous quarters, but the San Mateo City median house price spiked up. The details of San Mateo real estate show that in the third quarter, the average size of houses sold was up 10%.

Average size of San Mateo houses sold
Average and Median price of San Mateo houses sold

Examination of other San Mateo County cities revealed that eight other cities (Foster City, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Millbrae, Pacifica, Portola Valley, San Carlos, & Woodside) also had a significant house size increase as of the Aug 18 close of escrow data. Examining more of Silicon Valley revealed that Palo Alto was the only city in Santa Clara County to have a similar increase in the size of houses sold. With no other significant changes seen in the trends of those cities, it is hard to assign a cause. Perhaps the continuing problems reported for the city of San Francisco have changed the long-term plans of the residents of nearby cities. People less motivated by jobs (near retirement) or children (off to college) to stay put might be deciding their long-term future is elsewhere.

Drought Tolerant Landscape

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The “Lawn Be Gone” rebate offers up to $4 per sq. ft. of lawn which is replaced by drought-tolerant plants from the BAWSCA Approved Plant List. The list includes more than 2500 plants

There are several related rebate programs for San Mateo County which might significantly reduce the cost of putting in a drought-tolerant landscape. See “Drought Tolerant Landscape – Water Conservation – Rebates“.